Sun, Jan 17, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 05 | 114 | 01 | 2 | 231 |
| DET | 010 | 113 | 04 | 03 | 1 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:25DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 4:24PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 2. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 3. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. DET Brad Richards stopped
- 6. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:20PHIRyan White: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P1 16:09DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P2 8:17PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 10:17DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:17PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:39PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:13DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 10:00DETMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:24DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:55DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:58PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Schenn – Couturier – Raffl10:29
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds11:53
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton6:14
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Umberger – VandeVelde – Bellemare2:58
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gostisbehere2:18
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz12:36
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas13:22
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Datsyuk – Larkin2:44
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Sheahan – Larkin5:25
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist8:45
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Pulkkinen – Jurco – Glendening4:35
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith12:41
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:17
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:13
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).