Sun, Jan 17, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 312 | 07 | 326 |
| ANA | 05 | 111 | 116 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:57LAKVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 1:30ANARickard RakellAssists: Shea Theodore, Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 15:44LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 17:40LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 5:33ANADavid PerronAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:06LAKDwight King: Interference2 min
- P1 14:58LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:48LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:48ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 19:25ANAChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:17LAKLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:17ANAChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:40LAKJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:40ANAJohn Gibson: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lucic – Toffoli15:57
xG 0.90–0.22 (81%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Lecavalier – Gaborik – Brown11:49
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Nolan – Andreoff – Pearson6:00
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Lewis – King11:42
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McBain – Muzzin8:40
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Doughty8:29
xG 0.13–0.23 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Martinez – Schenn16:45
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell7:06
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg3:44
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Stewart – Perron5:38
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Thompson – Cogliano7:49
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Theodore10:01
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm12:56
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Holzer – Vatanen5:41
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).