Mon, Jan 18, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 26 | 19 | 19 | 424 |
| FLA | 09 | 014 | 210 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50EDMTaylor HallAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 17:52EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 4:19EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 2:45FLAReilly SmithUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 5:35FLAQuinton HowdenAssists: Shawn Thornton, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 18:32EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.02 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:16EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:15EDMBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min
- P1 19:10EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 1:44EDMAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
- P2 12:21FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:22EDMNail Yakupov: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Kassian – Yakupov10:42
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins5:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Pakarinen2:37
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl11:02
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Nurse15:40
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Schultz – Davidson15:43
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Sekera – Fayne14:41
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:48
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Trocheck12:39
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden8:26
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Shaw10:07
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov4:37
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Petrovic4:06
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson3:47
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).