Mon, Jan 18, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 117 | 07 | 238 |
| STL | 19 | 18 | 38 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00STLAlexander SteenAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:03PITChris KunitzAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 15:56PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Carl Hagelin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:14STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Joel Edmundson, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 2:10STLTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 11:38STLPaul StastnyAssists: Troy Brouwer, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 19:44STLKevin ShattenkirkENAssists: Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:19PITTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 3:05STLPaul Stastny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:12STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:12PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:14STLJori Lehtera: Interference2 min
- P3 3:40PITChris Kunitz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:41STLVladimir Tarasenko: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin13:17
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Fehr – Rust – Kuhnhackl9:27
xG 0.27–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Cullen – Porter – Sheary5:34
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist12:46
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin14:30
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Daley – Cole8:16
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Daley – Dumoulin2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri8:14
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:38
xG 0.01–0.07 (18%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Rattie9:30
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Steen – Brouwer – Stastny12:23
xG 0.78–0.99 (44%)attempts 12–22goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:32
xG 0.76–0.89 (46%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Parayko15:44
xG 0.47–0.75 (39%)attempts 9–21goals 2–1
- Benoit – Edmundson9:47
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).