Mon, Jan 18, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 2, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 216 | 08 | 234 |
| WPG | 012 | 09 | 116 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:16COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Nick Holden, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–0
- P2 19:42COLJarome IginlaPPGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 19:18WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:51COLJack Skille: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:39WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:48WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog12:00
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille9:06
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Wagner – Martinsen8:42
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon13:28
xG 0.66–1.25 (35%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Bigras12:38
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie14:42
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov19:55
xG 1.02–1.26 (45%)attempts 22–26goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little13:24
xG 0.91–0.18 (83%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Perreault – Armia – Ehlers10:45
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Peluso – Lipon – Copp5:06
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Burmistrov11:08
xG 0.42–0.68 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers17:22
xG 1.41–0.60 (70%)attempts 30–14goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba18:21
xG 0.51–0.76 (40%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Stuart – Chiarot9:41
xG 0.06–0.32 (17%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).