Tue, Jan 19, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 18 | 011 | 228 |
| NJD | 110 | 212 | 14 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12NJDAdam LarssonAssists: Reid Boucher, Sergey Kalinin · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 9:16CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 0:57NJDLee StempniakAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 1:14NJDReid BoucherGWGAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P2 15:55CGYKris RussellPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 18:59NJDAndy GreeneENAssists: Lee Stempniak, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:48NJDTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:32CGYDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26CGYMicheal Ferland: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:49NJDDavid Schlemko: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:27NJDAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:14NJDSergey Kalinin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Backlund – Bennett5:02
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Colborne – Ferland – Granlund4:06
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Raymond2:08
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan5:03
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Smid9:07
xG 0.67–0.31 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton11:48
xG 0.80–0.62 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell3:52
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Boucher – Kalinin9:57
xG 1.14–0.32 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique10:47
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta9:48
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Blandisi11:44
xG 0.75–1.14 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson15:50
xG 0.98–0.32 (75%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson14:30
xG 0.99–0.87 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas11:28
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).