Tue, Jan 19, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 16 | 02 | 01 | 220 |
| NYR | 017 | 113 | 116 | 13 | 349 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02VANSven BaertschiAssists: Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 4:18NYRDerek StepanAssists: Rick Nash, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 16:11VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Emerson Etem, Linden Vey · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 11:46NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Keith Yandle, Rick Nash · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 3:54NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 8:43VANAlex Biega: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:59NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Cracknell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Baertschi – Horvat12:25
xG 1.27–1.20 (52%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
- Sedin – Hansen – McCann9:33
xG 0.43–0.54 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Burrows – Vey – Etem11:18
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett9:12
xG 0.00–0.92 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Bartkowski13:13
xG 1.22–0.73 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev18:00
xG 0.54–1.32 (29%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Hutton18:02
xG 0.51–1.45 (26%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Miller15:46
xG 1.51–0.45 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Fast7:37
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Stalberg – Fast2:49
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Megna6:40
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh17:17
xG 1.89–0.89 (68%)attempts 31–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle8:20
xG 0.68–0.23 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle11:09
xG 0.89–0.52 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).