Tue, Jan 19, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 25 | 314 | 19 | 628 |
| CBJ | 112 | 111 | 112 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30CBJKerby RychelAssists: William Karlsson, Rene Bourque · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:15WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:52WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 3:16WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 4:47WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 9:35CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–2
- P2 10:25WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 5:07CBJRyan MurrayAssists: Kerby Rychel, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–3
- P3 19:27WSHMarcus JohanssonENAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:02WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 3:03CBJJustin Falk: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 9:15WSHRyan Stanton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:27WSHMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:27CBJJustin Falk: Holding2 min
- P2 11:27CBJJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:27WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:27WSHMichael Latta: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:40CBJCody Goloubef: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Richards – Latta6:47
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:22
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson8:30
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky13:10
xG 0.18–0.71 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Schmidt18:13
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner20:28
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Chorney – Stanton6:36
xG 0.30–1.06 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 1–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Karlsson – Rychel10:01
xG 0.99–0.41 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:01
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Saad – Anderson – Wennberg10:34
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Boll – Hannikainen5:08
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones18:12
xG 0.77–0.22 (78%)attempts 23–18goals 2–0
- Johnson – Goloubef19:41
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Falk – Prout11:06
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).