Tue, Jan 19, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 17 | 27 | 424 |
| MTL | 09 | 116 | 014 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:08BOSMax TalbotUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 8:48MTLMark BarberioAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:49BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 12:14BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Joe Morrow · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:37BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:33MTLDavid Desharnais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:35BOSKevan Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:18MTLAndrei Markov: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:29BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:56BOSBrad Marchand: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 5:13MTLP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 16:11BOSDennis Seidenberg: Interference2 min
- P3 19:53BOSFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Vatrano – Kemppainen7:53
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly10:04
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beleskey – Spooner10:00
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Pastrnak6:09
xG 0.05–0.28 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Morrow13:30
xG 0.49–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Miller – Krug11:15
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Chara – Trotman14:20
xG 0.25–0.74 (25%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Byron – Eller7:01
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn5:47
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Mitchell – Smith-Pelly2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:41
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban2:37
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Emelin – Petry14:39
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Barberio – Beaulieu3:30
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).