Tue, Jan 19, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 212 | 15 | 427 |
| NSH | 012 | 111 | 016 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:43CHIRichard PanikGWGAssists: Dennis Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 3:08NSHRyan EllisAssists: Miikka Salomaki, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 4:08CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 19:23CHIAndrew DesjardinsENAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:51CHIRyan Garbutt: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:27NSHJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:58CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:13CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:44NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Danault – Teravainen10:19
xG 1.06–0.22 (83%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:14
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw10:56
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Panik – Garbutt – Rasmussen5:55
xG 0.15–0.35 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Gustafsson12:31
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson19:04
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
- Scuderi – van Riemsdyk7:00
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg5:50
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Bass – Salomaki5:00
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala2:01
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Smith6:48
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm14:21
xG 0.58–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–2
- Weber – Josi20:41
xG 0.61–0.74 (45%)attempts 27–19goals 0–0
- Jackman – Bitetto8:49
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).