Tue, Jan 19, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 09 | 011 | 229 |
| LAK | 213 | 07 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03DALAles HemskyAssists: Mattias Janmark, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:31LAKVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Jamie McBain, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:01LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 19:34DALCody EakinAssists: Patrick Sharp, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 6:17LAKMilan LucicGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:19DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:08LAKNicholas Shore: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:57DALKari Lehtonen: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 19:53LAKVincent Lecavalier: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Janmark won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Janmark11:55
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin14:35
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Eaves5:08
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sharp – Eakin – Nichushkin14:07
xG 0.73–1.03 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers16:16
xG 0.60–0.23 (73%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg18:52
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Nemeth – Lindell13:21
xG 0.36–1.28 (22%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – King11:17
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli15:05
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Gaborik – Andreoff – Shore8:55
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Carter – Pearson11:41
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Muzzin9:25
xG 0.96–0.60 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb16:08
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty7:17
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).