Wed, Jan 20, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 09 | 14 | 220 |
| DET | 011 | 09 | 110 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:01STLTy RattieAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Backes · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 12:13STLDmitrij JaskinGWGAssists: David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 17:47DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Mike Green, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:06DETTomas Jurco: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:59DETTeemu Pulkkinen: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:00STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:16STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:21STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P2 14:21DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:43STLAlexander Steen: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:02DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:56STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Berglund – Rattie7:42
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin4:12
xG 0.08–0.08 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves4:04
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Tarasenko2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson8:26
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Benoit – Edmundson4:13
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo6:22
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Larkin6:51
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist12:25
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm5:07
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Andersson – Jurco – Glendening2:47
xG 0.07–0.06 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Marchenko14:19
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Green – Smith14:38
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:18
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).