Thu, Jan 21, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 3, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 113 | 213 | 332 |
| NJD | 510 | 03 | 17 | 620 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53NJDJoseph BlandisiPPAssists: David Schlemko, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 7:57NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 11:23NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: David Schlemko, Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P1 13:56NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.17 xG0–4
- P1 17:24NJDLee StempniakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
- P2 7:30OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 16:05OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Cody Ceci, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 17:14OTTCody CeciAssists: Chris Neil, Max McCormick · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 19:42NJDAdam HenriqueENAssists: Stephen Gionta, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:34OTTChris Wideman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:32OTTMark Stone: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:55NJDAdam Larsson: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:57NJDJoseph Blandisi: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:25NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 14:39NJDLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Ryan – Zibanejad9:46
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Neil – McCormick – Prince10:45
xG 0.54–0.05 (91%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Stone – Pageau – Lazar5:04
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Hoffman – Chiasson4:18
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Borowiecki8:39
xG 0.95–0.06 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Wideman2:44
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch7:46
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique10:14
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta12:29
xG 0.34–0.52 (39%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Josefson – Boucher – Kalinin8:16
xG 0.17–0.47 (26%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Blandisi8:43
xG 0.55–0.93 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Gelinas12:01
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Larsson2:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson16:39
xG 0.48–0.89 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).