Thu, Jan 21, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 112 | 28 | 427 |
| CBJ | 07 | 215 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:37CBJScott HartnellAssists: Seth Jones, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.42 xG1–1
- P2 4:15CGYSam BennettAssists: Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:56CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan Murray, Cam Atkinson · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 1:28CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 14:28CGYSam BennettAssists: Kris Russell, Mikael Backlund · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 8:52CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:39CGYMatt Stajan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:39CBJCody Goloubef: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Bennett11:24
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Jones – Colborne – Granlund2:49
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Colborne – Granlund4:36
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan5:41
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Wideman10:07
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton17:39
xG 0.59–0.87 (40%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie19:09
xG 0.38–0.99 (28%)attempts 15–24goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Saad – Wennberg12:32
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner13:46
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
- Bourque – Karlsson – Rychel10:40
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Campbell – Anderson – Hannikainen6:58
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones19:14
xG 1.39–0.54 (72%)attempts 28–14goals 2–1
- Tyutin – Prout9:24
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Goloubef3:37
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).