Fri, Jan 22, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 110 | 314 | 534 |
| OTT | 08 | 218 | 04 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49NYINick LeddyPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:05OTTBobby RyanAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:51OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Curtis Lazar, Matt Puempel · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:10NYICal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 2:58NYITravis HamonicGWGAssists: John Tavares, Mikhail Grabovski · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 7:03NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Travis Hamonic · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 14:00NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:52OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:52NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:30OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P1 6:16OTTMatt Puempel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:46OTTMax McCormick: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:03NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:29OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:00NYIFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Tavares – Strome11:30
xG 0.93–0.44 (68%)attempts 23–11goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:38
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin11:20
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson12:09
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan17:36
xG 1.11–0.20 (85%)attempts 27–12goals 2–0
- Strait – Leddy12:52
xG 0.35–0.45 (43%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Zidlicky – Hickey12:56
xG 0.68–0.84 (45%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Ryan – Zibanejad7:43
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Stone – Pageau9:44
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Smith – Puempel – Lazar6:08
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad4:10
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Wideman9:08
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen4:12
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci10:10
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).