Fri, Jan 22, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 07 | 012 | 027 |
| FLA | 313 | 110 | 09 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19FLAReilly SmithGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:18FLABrian CampbellAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 19:57FLAQuinton HowdenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 2:51FLAAaron EkbladUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:18CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:21FLAErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:47CHIBrent Seabrook: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:16CHIAndrew Desjardins: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:16FLARoberto Luongo: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:44FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:44CHIAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:44FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:08CHIArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Shaw – Danault2:48
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen8:00
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Panik – Rasmussen – Sekac9:02
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw4:30
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – van Riemsdyk11:17
xG 0.39–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Keith – Hjalmarsson13:37
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson14:25
xG 0.30–1.23 (19%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:23
xG 0.96–0.45 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:20
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Knight8:51
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Howden – Shaw9:30
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Ekblad12:49
xG 0.77–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson14:51
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Kampfer – Petrovic12:21
xG 0.14–0.34 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).