Fri, Jan 22, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 112 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 134 |
| COL | 08 | 013 | 116 | 04 | 1 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:57STLAlexander SteenAssists: Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 19:06COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. COL Gabriel Landeskog scored
- 2. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 3. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 4. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 5. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 6. STL Troy Brouwer stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:19COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:21STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:44COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P3 12:51STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:02STLBrian Elliott: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri8:32
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Rattie7:49
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Reaves – Jaskin6:07
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Berglund – Tarasenko3:40
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:50
xG 0.97–0.51 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk3:20
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson3:10
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Skille8:45
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Wagner – Martinsen7:52
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Landeskog – Grigorenko11:38
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon15:08
xG 0.61–1.02 (37%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie19:14
xG 0.97–0.49 (67%)attempts 27–12goals 0–0
- Redmond – Zadorov3:23
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Bigras9:00
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).