Sat, Jan 23, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 214 | 05 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 329 |
| TOR | 03 | 18 | 14 | 04 | 1 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Dale Weise, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:33MTLTomas FleischmannAssists: Lars Eller, Daniel Carr · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 8:14TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 4:37TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Peter Holland, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Peter Holland scored
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. TOR PA Parenteau stopped
- 4. MTL Brian Flynn stopped
- 5. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 6. MTL Max Pacioretty scored
- 7. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 8. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 9. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 10. MTL Lars Eller scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:27TORLeo Komarov: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 12:28TORPeter Holland: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:43MTLDale Weise: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:20TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:29MTLDale Weise: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:54TORJosh Leivo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:54
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Weise – Galchenyuk12:54
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Eller – Carr9:20
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn6:28
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Beaulieu12:32
xG 0.89–0.07 (92%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Emelin – Petry14:31
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:17
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Holland – Leivo6:09
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Winnik – Clune – Froese8:33
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak9:45
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri10:48
xG 0.02–0.65 (3%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Gardiner2:28
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Hunwick2:17
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner12:01
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).