Sat, Jan 23, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 05 | 222 | 240 |
| FLA | 011 | 419 | 15 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:50FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 12:36FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 15:56FLAReilly SmithGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 17:33FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Logan Shaw, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 5:39TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 15:52FLABrian CampbellENAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.71 xG1–5
- P3 18:31TBLJT BrownAssists: Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:35FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:19TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:45FLAJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:54FLAQuinton Howden: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:34TBLValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
- P2 10:37TBLTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:32TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:40FLASteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:20FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Brown – Paquette5:37
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Namestnikov8:18
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Kucherov – Paquette2:40
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov7:11
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov2:41
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle3:19
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Carle – Stralman2:28
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Howden – Shaw6:32
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov7:28
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck5:15
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Knight7:07
xG 0.03–0.58 (6%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson9:22
xG 0.50–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Petrovic8:43
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad9:51
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).