Sat, Jan 23, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 12 | 14 | 316 |
| WPG | 04 | 010 | 19 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41NJDLee StempniakAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 15:49NJDJacob JosefsonPPGWGAssists: David Schlemko, Joseph Blandisi · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 8:42NJDLee StempniakAssists: Eric Gelinas, Michael Cammalleri · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 14:51WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.35 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:41WPGDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:24WPGToby Enstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:41NJDEric Gelinas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perreault won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique11:45
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta10:07
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Josefson – Boucher – Farnham9:01
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Blandisi10:29
xG 0.24–0.69 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson18:18
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas12:17
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Larsson2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Ehlers9:56
xG 0.63–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Ladd – Little – Armia9:05
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – Burmistrov8:40
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Armia3:45
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Trouba20:47
xG 1.30–0.31 (81%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Chiarot8:54
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers19:13
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).