Sun, Apr 10, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 19 | 29 | 527 |
| NYI | 27 | 04 | 06 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Calvin de Haan, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 9:19NYIMatt MartinAssists: Ryan Pulock, Calvin de Haan · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 11:15PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 19:52PHIEvgeny MedvedevPPAssists: Matt Read, Nick Cousins · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 6:38PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 5:50PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 11:10PHIR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Michael Raffl, Nick Cousins · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:44NYIRoss Johnston: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:37NYIBracken Kearns: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:45NYIRoss Johnston: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:11PHINick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:13PHIRadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:56PHIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game2 min
- P3 10:59NYIBracken Kearns: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:14PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cousins won the faceoff against Kearns
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Laughton – Raffl10:30
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Umberger – Voracek – Weal8:25
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:36
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Gagner – Read – Cousins12:49
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere17:31
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Medvedev14:19
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Manning – Gudas14:28
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKearns – Bailey – Prince9:32
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Martin – Strome7:15
xG 0.46–0.28 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Bernier – Nelson – Johnston10:58
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Boulton – Clutterbuck – Quine8:14
xG 0.00–0.32 (1%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey17:02
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- de Haan – Pulock12:31
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 2–2
- Mayfield – Pelech14:46
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).