Sat, Jan 23, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 14 | 14 | 315 |
| DAL | 010 | 119 | 014 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:07COLCarl SoderbergSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 7:24DALJason DemersPPAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ales Hemsky · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 10:12COLGabriel LandeskogSHGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 14:09COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:30COLNick Holden: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:01COLMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:51COLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:24COLCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:24COLCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:18DALAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen3:23
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – McLeod6:48
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon12:17
xG 0.30–0.46 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:39
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBodnarchuk – Bigras5:29
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson15:21
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie18:54
xG 0.56–1.02 (35%)attempts 12–28goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Eaves – Sceviour5:52
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin10:25
xG 0.77–0.29 (73%)attempts 22–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eakin – Nichushkin10:51
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Janmark8:31
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers14:11
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:12
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Lindell12:12
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).