Sat, Jan 23, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 16 | 210 | 425 |
| EDM | 19 | 09 | 06 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Taylor Hall, Griffin Reinhart · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:36NSHMattias EkholmUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:47NSHMike FisherPPGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis · Deflected, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 0:52NSHMike FisherAssists: Shea Weber, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–1
- P3 19:24NSHFilip ForsbergENUnassisted · Snap, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:22NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:53EDMIiro Pakarinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:35NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:43NSHJames Neal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:43EDMEric Gryba: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:49NSHEric Nystrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:10EDMZack Kassian: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:10EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Watson – Salomaki8:52
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Johansen10:32
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Forsberg7:43
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bass6:33
xG 0.06–0.24 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Granberg12:25
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Jackman – Ellis9:23
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm3:28
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl14:04
xG 0.69–0.29 (71%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Yakupov2:55
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Pakarinen9:57
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Lander3:19
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Reinhart14:19
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Sekera – Fayne12:27
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Schultz – Nurse13:33
xG 0.18–0.79 (18%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).