Mon, Jan 25, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Detroit Red Wings 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 211 | 18 | 426 |
| NYI | 111 | 09 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57DETBrad RichardsPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 16:33NYIBrock NelsonAssists: John Tavares · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 13:29DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:40DETDanny DeKeyserGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 15:12NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Matt Martin, Brian Strait · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:15DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Darren Helm, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:41DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:30NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26DETMike Green: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Datsyuk – Helm10:28
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Tangradi – Jurco – Glendening6:07
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Glendening2:28
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin9:56
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser18:39
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Green – Smith9:23
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko2:19
xG 0.09–0.15 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nelson – Strome12:33
xG 0.81–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Lee4:52
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:09
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:43
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan8:48
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – de Haan7:47
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic7:56
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).