Mon, Jan 25, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 08 | 211 | 326 |
| NYR | 19 | 112 | 412 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58NYRDylan McIlrathAssists: Keith Yandle, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:13BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Marcus Foligno, Zach Bogosian · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:51NYRViktor StalbergAssists: Kevin Hayes, Oscar Lindberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 1:06NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Jesper Fast, Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 4:31BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jack Eichel, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 5:44BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 6:44NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 9:23NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 19:24NYRDerick BrassardENUnassisted · Slap, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:32BUFCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:47BUFMark Pysyk: Kneeing2 min
- P2 1:52BUFCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:37NYRDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:32BUFDavid Legwand: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Girgensons – Eichel9:51
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Legwand – O'Reilly – Schaller4:37
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Kane13:45
xG 0.50–0.76 (40%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson10:27
xG 0.38–0.75 (34%)attempts 7–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Pysyk11:14
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Pysyk – McCabe2:21
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Weber – Ristolainen2:06
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:32
xG 1.04–0.57 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Brassard – Fast – Miller9:24
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 3–1
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes9:05
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Paille – Glass6:58
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh14:45
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Yandle – McIlrath12:00
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Klein – Yandle2:18
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).