Mon, Jan 25, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 216 | 06 | 19 | 331 |
| PHI | 08 | 115 | 113 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Krejci · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 17:27BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 3:45PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–1
- P3 12:08PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Jakub Voracek, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 18:06BOSBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Kevan Miller · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:04PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:47PHIMichael Del Zotto: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:02BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:38BOSDennis Seidenberg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:00BOSZach Trotman: Interference2 min
- P2 10:57BOSJimmy Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:36PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:22PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:57BOSTorey Krug: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly12:29
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Talbot – Hayes – Rinaldo7:44
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Spooner11:08
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Pastrnak – Kemppainen9:21
xG 0.27–1.10 (20%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:23
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller9:59
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller3:58
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Simmonds15:00
xG 1.09–0.21 (84%)attempts 25–9goals 1–1
- Umberger – Weal – Laughton6:35
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:26
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Read – Raffl9:36
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas17:52
xG 0.90–0.54 (62%)attempts 27–21goals 0–1
- Streit – Schultz10:13
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:17
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).