Mon, Jan 25, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 03 | 012 | 19 | 124 |
| DAL | 010 | 213 | 07 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:43DALJamie BennAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:03DALJason SpezzaGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 1:49CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Jiri Hudler, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:42CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:38DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:38CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:22DALValeri Nichushkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:58DALJyrki Jokipakka: Holding2 min
- P2 15:57DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:50CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:36DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P3 19:50DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Jooris5:08
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Jooris2:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma3:47
xG 0.12–0.14 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett9:48
xG 0.16–0.62 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Russell3:53
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:01
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton10:26
xG 0.14–0.38 (26%)attempts 4–16goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Eaves – Sceviour5:53
xG 0.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Janmark7:41
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Eakin10:33
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin11:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers13:30
xG 0.99–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:38
xG 1.08–0.51 (68%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Jokipakka – Lindell10:05
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).