Tue, Jan 26, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 09 | 011 | 026 |
| CAR | 316 | 29 | 015 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Jay McClement, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 13:05CARRiley NashAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 15:23CARJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Kris Versteeg, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 10:51CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Jordan Staal, Andrej Nestrasil · Snap, 0.27 xG0–4
- P2 12:24CARRiley NashAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:11CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P1 8:26CARJay McClement: Holding2 min
- P1 19:30CHIAndrew Shaw: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:26CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:17CARNoah Hanifin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:27CARNoah Hanifin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen8:22
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:48
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Panik – McNeill – Rasmussen11:18
xG 0.19–0.88 (18%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw5:59
xG 0.13–1.10 (10%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – van Riemsdyk12:56
xG 0.47–0.47 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Keith – Hjalmarsson14:48
xG 0.43–1.24 (26%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
- Seabrook – Gustafsson15:10
xG 0.40–1.47 (21%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom9:12
xG 1.29–0.19 (87%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- McClement – Terry – Nash9:18
xG 1.18–0.11 (91%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Di Giuseppe13:05
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm9:16
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk15:18
xG 1.94–0.41 (82%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Pesce – Hanifin14:38
xG 1.05–0.33 (76%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Liles – Slavin15:40
xG 1.02–0.64 (61%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).