Tue, Jan 26, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 211 | 18 | 27 | 526 |
| MTL | 09 | 112 | 19 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 19:19CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 5:22MTLDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Torrey Mitchell, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 10:40CBJBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 3:45MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Nathan Beaulieu · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 17:03CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:38CBJBrandon SaadENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.57 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:02CBJScott Hartnell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:43MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:51CBJSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 17:32MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:22MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Holding2 min
- P2 10:53CBJWilliam Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:00CBJMatt Calvert: Holding2 min
- P2 15:38CBJRyan Murray: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:45CBJRyan Murray: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:45
xG 0.67–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Karlsson – Rychel6:51
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg8:50
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Calvert4:44
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Prout6:20
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Prout4:46
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Falk – Goloubef4:18
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Weise – de la Rose5:05
xG 0.30–0.00 (98%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:06
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Eller – Smith-Pelly5:08
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Flynn4:37
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Beaulieu9:46
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Markov – Barberio6:06
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry11:17
xG 0.26–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).