Tue, Jan 26, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 17 | 12 | 322 |
| OTT | 17 | 17 | 022 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 11:12BUFEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 10:03OTTBobby RyanAssists: Cody Ceci, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 13:48BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Robin Lehner · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:08BUFJack EichelGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:39BUFZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:39BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:39OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:39OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:06OTTCurtis Lazar: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:02OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:38BUFJamie McGinn: Holding2 min
- P3 19:37BUFMike Weber: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Girgensons – Eichel9:33
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Legwand – O'Reilly – Schaller4:04
xG 0.10–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Foligno – Larsson11:57
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Gionta – McGinn – O'Reilly11:53
xG 0.10–0.44 (19%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Pysyk13:53
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Pysyk – McCabe2:34
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Franson – McCabe12:23
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad13:45
xG 0.85–0.23 (78%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Stone – Prince – Pageau3:02
xG 0.05–0.01 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Chiasson – McCormick4:10
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Chiasson – Lazar4:00
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wideman2:07
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci9:16
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:56
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).