Tue, Jan 26, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 010 | 08 | 123 |
| FLA | 07 | 315 | 25 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:35TORNazem KadriAssists: Peter Holland, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:49FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Roberto Luongo · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:40FLAVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 14:13FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 3:52FLAReilly SmithAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 7:43FLAAlexander PetrovicUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:38TORNick Spaling: Interference2 min
- P1 19:15TORPeter Holland: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 19:15FLAAaron Ekblad: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:46TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 2:46FLADmitry Kulikov: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:46TORDion Phaneuf: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:20TORShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:03TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:54FLAJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:02TORByron Froese: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:16FLAShawn Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:49TORRich Clune: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:49FLAShawn Thornton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Holland3:55
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–1
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri5:37
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Winnik – Clune – Froese7:55
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Spaling – Holland7:07
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly12:38
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gardiner12:20
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Polak – Marincin13:39
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck8:32
xG 0.86–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Howden – Shaw9:29
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Knight10:55
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:20
xG 0.20–0.63 (24%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Petrovic10:09
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson11:57
xG 0.67–0.50 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Ekblad9:05
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).