Tue, Jan 26, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 05 | 18 | 219 |
| VAN | 112 | 012 | 05 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mike Fisher, Mattias Ekholm · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:39VANBrandon SutterAssists: Daniel Sedin, Chris Tanev · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 15:16NSHJames NealGWGAssists: Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:09VANEmerson Etem: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:54NSHCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:54VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:20VANMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:28NSHMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:26VANBen Hutton: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:11NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Johansen9:29
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Jarnkrok3:40
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Salomaki2:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Neal – Johansen – Forsberg3:59
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:22
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Granberg12:36
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm3:05
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Vey – Etem8:56
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Dorsett – Virtanen6:55
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Sedin – Vey – Etem2:06
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Hansen – Sutter10:45
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev16:57
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Biega – Bartkowski14:49
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Hutton14:30
xG 0.34–0.52 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).