Wed, Jan 27, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 011 | 013 | 030 |
| TBL | 117 | 05 | 07 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:59TORRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 7:13TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:32TORRich Clune: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:12TORFrank Corrado: Interference2 min
- P2 5:45TBLNikita Kucherov: Embellishment2 min
- P2 7:48TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:48TBLBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:19TORPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:40TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:10TBLTyler Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:42TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Grabner – Kadri8:11
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Winnik – Clune – Froese5:01
xG 0.24–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Matthias – Spaling5:44
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Bozak – Holland10:57
xG 0.31–0.58 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Corrado3:40
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly2:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick3:35
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Namestnikov9:58
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Marchessault – Paquette5:34
xG 0.11–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov8:49
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown6:39
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Sustr10:47
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov9:28
xG 0.50–0.25 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stralman – Nesterov2:21
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).