Wed, Jan 27, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 212 | 16 | 012 | 12 | 432 |
| WSH | 06 | 211 | 113 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 11:11PHIRyan WhiteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 7:39WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 8:34WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 17:39PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 3:55WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 0:38PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:48WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:08PHIJakub Voracek: Embellishment2 min
- P1 7:08WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
- P1 16:33PHISam Gagner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:47WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:11WSHBraden Holtby: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:48WSHBraden Holtby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:10WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:58PHIMatt Read: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:45
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Umberger – Gagner – Laughton7:11
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds13:26
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
- Schenn – Read – Raffl9:54
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas13:31
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gostisbehere13:39
xG 0.54–0.55 (49%)attempts 10–19goals 1–2
- Streit – Schultz13:07
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:57
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 2–2
- Chimera – Richards – Wilson5:40
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:56
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson2:25
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Schmidt2:16
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt11:35
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:51
xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).