Wed, Jan 27, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 4, Los Angeles Kings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 27 | 27 | 419 |
| LAK | 218 | 19 | 011 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31LAKDrew DoughtySHAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:40LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Dwight King · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 0:42COLMatt DucheneAssists: John Mitchell · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 7:10COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 15:13LAKDwight KingAssists: Jordan Nolan, Jeff Carter · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 7:38COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 10:35COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:31COLJack Skille: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:27LAKMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P1 12:49COLBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:09LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:33LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:43COLChris Bigras: Interference2 min
- P2 18:33COLTyson Barrie: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:38LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:38COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P3 6:18LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:30LAKTyler Toffoli: Holding2 min
- P3 15:11LAKAnze Kopitar: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:29COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Landeskog8:06
xG 0.43–0.23 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Wagner – Grigorenko – Martinsen2:17
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Duchene – MacKinnon4:34
xG 0.38–0.48 (45%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille10:55
xG 0.11–0.44 (20%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Bigras2:11
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson12:32
xG 0.39–0.57 (40%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie4:22
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Lewis – King3:06
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Nolan – Shore – Pearson3:31
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli8:42
xG 0.50–0.45 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
- Gaborik – Carter – Brown4:56
xG 0.10–0.10 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty2:48
xG 0.46–0.06 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Martinez8:17
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Schenn2:27
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).