Tue, Feb 2, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 113 | 210 | 13 | 435 |
| BOS | 19 | 015 | 216 | 02 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:37BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:56TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Roman Polak, Shawn Matthias · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 0:55BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Krejci, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 1:21BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 9:02TORLeo KomarovAssists: Morgan Rielly, Roman Polak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 11:31TORNazem KadriAssists: Matt Hunwick, Leo Komarov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 3:06TORPA ParenteauPPGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.30 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:21TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:02BOSColin Miller: Interference2 min
- P1 16:21BOSZach Trotman: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:21TORRich Clune: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:50TORPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:28BOSJimmy Hayes: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:54TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:23TORFrank Corrado: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:48BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Grabner – Kadri3:51
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Lupul – Clune – Froese6:31
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Winnik – Matthias – Spaling6:57
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Winnik – Matthias – Bozak4:30
xG 0.01–0.06 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly14:05
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:11
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner10:20
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro6:28
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner11:09
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak10:56
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly10:55
xG 0.08–0.79 (9%)attempts 5–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug9:48
xG 0.77–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Miller3:49
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller10:50
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).