Tue, Feb 2, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Minnesota Wild 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 120 | 18 | 115 | 343 |
| NYI | 012 | 315 | 211 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:34MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Mathew Dumba, Nino Niederreiter · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 3:20NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:07NYIAnders LeeAssists: Travis Hamonic, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 18:36MINJason PominvilleAssists: Jason Zucker, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 19:18NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 2:49NYIFrans NielsenPPGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 4:52NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 10:04MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:21NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:15NYIMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P3 1:21MINZach Parise: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:29NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:46NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Carter – Haula6:32
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Coyle – Niederreiter10:09
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle2:18
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stoll – Vanek – Zucker7:17
xG 0.29–0.46 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser5:48
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:41
xG 0.85–0.59 (59%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Prosser – Dumba2:15
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Tavares – Strome14:11
xG 1.20–0.50 (71%)attempts 26–13goals 2–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson9:41
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:49
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin10:10
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan18:40
xG 1.57–0.62 (72%)attempts 32–11goals 3–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey11:40
xG 0.39–0.57 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Leddy – Mayfield13:22
xG 0.40–0.80 (34%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).