Tue, Feb 2, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 5, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 26 | 15 | 519 |
| WSH | 016 | 011 | 211 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:06FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 0:21FLAVincent TrocheckGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 15:10FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 0:34WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 1:53WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:07FLAQuinton HowdenENAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:51FLAErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:17FLAAleksander Barkov: Illegal stick2 min
- P1 7:28WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:10FLAShawn Thornton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:45FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:51WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:52WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:58FLANick Bjugstad: Interference2 min
- P2 6:06FLALogan Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:31WSHJason Chimera: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:30FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:30FLADerek MacKenzie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHowden – Huberdeau – Barkov2:31
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Bjugstad – Shaw2:45
xG 0.01–0.02 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Knight4:44
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:11
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Ekblad10:42
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Kampfer – Petrovic13:38
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Campbell – Gudbranson11:19
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky10:56
xG 0.85–0.24 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Chimera – Oshie – Backstrom5:26
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Galiev5:56
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Richards – Wilson4:44
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Schmidt9:50
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Orlov – Schmidt4:03
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:29
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).