Tue, Feb 2, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 013 | 016 | 137 |
| EDM | 018 | 410 | 17 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 3:01EDMEric GrybaAssists: Zack Kassian, Mark Letestu · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 9:58EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 16:32EDMBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 17:01EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Taylor Hall, Adam Clendening · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 14:41EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:26CBJRyan Murray: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:15EDMGriffin Reinhart: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:15CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:51EDMMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P2 6:22EDMGriffin Reinhart: Interference2 min
- P2 15:37CBJSeth Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:47EDMAdam Clendening: Interference2 min
- P3 12:09EDMEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:09EDMTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:09CBJJustin Falk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:08EDMAdam Clendening: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:22
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg10:17
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Calvert – Karlsson8:48
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Rychel7:26
xG 0.17–0.40 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout11:29
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Falk13:16
xG 0.65–0.94 (41%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
- Murray – Jones16:32
xG 0.49–0.78 (39%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Kassian – Yakupov7:14
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Pouliot – Eberle – McDavid10:21
xG 0.45–0.22 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Pakarinen10:34
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl10:18
xG 0.50–0.73 (41%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Reinhart12:36
xG 1.08–0.65 (62%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Clendening – Nurse10:52
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Sekera – Fayne14:19
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).