Wed, Feb 3, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 18 | 07 | 125 |
| TBL | 04 | 215 | 14 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:23TBLJT BrownAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:06DETGustav NyquistAssists: Tomas Tatar, Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 6:30TBLTyler JohnsonPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 3:23TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:12DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:08DETPavel Datsyuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03TBLBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 18:32TBLNikita Nesterov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:32DETGustav Nyquist: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:24DETGustav Nyquist: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 5:39TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:40DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:40TBLRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Pulkkinen – Jurco5:21
xG 0.29–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Glendening6:48
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm8:39
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin9:27
xG 0.10–0.80 (11%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser10:56
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Green – Smith15:32
xG 0.37–0.34 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko13:57
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Kucherov10:44
xG 0.62–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Brown11:01
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Condra – Paquette7:26
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Namestnikov10:12
xG 0.00–0.63 (0%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:42
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr14:59
xG 0.43–0.29 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Coburn – Nesterov13:32
xG 0.10–0.60 (15%)attempts 4–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).