Wed, Feb 3, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 06 | 015 | 129 |
| CGY | 111 | 29 | 14 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 10:44CARElias LindholmAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:32CGYMark GiordanoPPGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 12:10CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 2:47CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:52CARRon Hainsey: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:32CARJay McClement: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:29CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P2 5:04CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:07CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:21CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:53CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:00CARRiley Nash: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:17CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe4:48
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Staal – Nestrasil3:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom4:04
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm7:39
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Slavin8:42
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Faulk4:15
xG 0.11–0.06 (62%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Slavin2:53
xG 0.05–0.04 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan10:46
xG 0.73–0.18 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Colborne – Bouma – Jooris6:51
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett10:02
xG 0.40–0.19 (69%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Ferland8:35
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Smid11:09
xG 0.90–0.25 (78%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Russell – Hamilton14:35
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie7:42
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).