Thu, Feb 4, 2016·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 113 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 333 |
| BUF | 15 | 18 | 010 | 05 | 0 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35BUFEvander KaneAssists: Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:47BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Mark Pysyk, Ryan O'Reilly · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 1:45BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Torey Krug, Kevan Miller · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 2:44BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
- 2. BOS Ryan Spooner scored
- 3. BUF Evander Kane stopped
- 4. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 5. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:48BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 13:38BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P2 17:03BUFRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:40BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:13BUFJack Eichel: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- OT 0:19BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- OT 2:50BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly12:41
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner10:04
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Ferraro2:32
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro5:43
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug10:51
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Chara – Trotman12:11
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Trotman5:12
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Kane – Larsson11:58
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Deslauriers4:08
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Girgensons – Eichel7:54
xG 0.03–0.37 (8%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Reinhart13:25
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – McCabe12:31
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen16:17
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Pysyk17:12
xG 0.32–0.83 (28%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).