Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 04 | 07 | 218 |
| NYR | 07 | 217 | 26 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09MINRyan CarterUnassisted · Slap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 7:57MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 3:15NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:35NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Derick Brassard, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:46NYRDerick BrassardGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:12NYRChris KreiderENAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:08NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40NYRViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:01MINRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:01NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:58MINNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:27MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Haula – Fontaine5:05
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Koivu – Coyle – Niederreiter13:16
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Stoll – Vanek – Zucker8:06
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund10:18
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser8:56
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba2:43
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin3:26
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Fast – Miller9:57
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes9:55
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:02
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Moore – Paille – Megna4:19
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – McDonagh4:18
xG 0.85–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:59
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Boyle – Yandle2:24
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).