Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 05 | 112 | 226 |
| WSH | 17 | 17 | 19 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:28WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 18:42WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Jason Chimera, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–2
- P3 5:38NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P3 17:20WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:08NYIThomas Hickey: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:46NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:01WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:40WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Nelson10:03
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Tavares – Strome14:11
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 18–8goals 0–2
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin12:37
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:57
xG 0.08–0.41 (17%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey12:24
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan17:55
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Strait – Leddy19:01
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Sill – Latta7:03
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:52
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:53
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
- Chimera – Richards – Wilson10:02
xG 0.08–0.64 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner17:19
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Carlson – Schmidt18:12
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
- Chorney – Orlov11:19
xG 0.21–0.66 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).