Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 7, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 313 | 110 | 35 | 728 |
| OTT | 113 | 110 | 015 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29EDMMark FayneAssists: Matt Hendricks, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:10EDMJordan EberleAssists: Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 11:16EDMJordan EberlePPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P1 14:23OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 6:46OTTMark StoneAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 12:58EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 2:24EDMAndrej SekeraPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 5:53EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Taylor Hall, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–2
- P3 16:56EDMBrandon DavidsonPPAssists: Iiro Pakarinen, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.02 xG7–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:25EDMEric Gryba: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:25OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:53OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P1 14:06EDMBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:02EDMMark Fayne: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:57OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:57EDMEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:06EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P3 2:06OTTShane Prince: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:25EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:25OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:43EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:21OTTChris Wideman: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – McDavid11:12
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl12:16
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Yakupov11:42
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Pakarinen8:57
xG 0.05–0.28 (15%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson11:25
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Schultz – Nurse13:33
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Sekera – Fayne14:08
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 6–28goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau10:43
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad13:05
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Neil – Prince – Lazar2:05
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Neil – McCormick – Prince3:14
xG 0.01–0.03 (25%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci11:13
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Methot – Karlsson18:21
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 25–18goals 1–3
- Wiercioch – Wideman14:52
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).