Thu, Feb 4, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 3, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 118 | 19 | 112 | 339 |
| FLA | 313 | 110 | 210 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30FLABrandon PirriAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Jaromir Jagr · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:41FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.34 xG0–2
- P1 11:06FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P1 19:53DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 1:01DETDylan LarkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 16:13FLADerek MacKenzieGWGAssists: Brandon Pirri, Corban Knight · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 3:45FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 12:36DETMike GreenPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 14:19FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:21FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:21DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:21FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:34DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 13:43DETMike Green: Holding2 min
- P1 13:43FLABrandon Pirri: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:19FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:47FLAJaromir Jagr: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:10DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:30DETGustav Nyquist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:04FLAJaromir Jagr: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:59DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:38FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 16:05FLABrandon Pirri: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan5:31
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm6:23
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Andersson – Jurco – Glendening3:59
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin5:23
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Green – Smith10:18
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Marchenko9:27
xG 0.09–0.35 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser11:26
xG 0.24–0.57 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov7:12
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw5:16
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck7:27
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Knight – Howden4:43
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Petrovic10:05
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson9:26
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad11:17
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).