Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 25 | 28 | 26 | 619 |
| NSH | 010 | 211 | 119 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:51PHIMatt ReadAssists: Scott Laughton, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:49PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Sean Couturier, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 4:23NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 8:10PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–1
- P2 16:15PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 16:40NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: James Neal, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 10:03NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 12:01PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.25 xG5–3
- P3 13:11PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.09 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:01PHIRadko Gudas: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 17:39PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:16NSHCraig Smith: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:46PHISam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:49PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Holding2 min
- P3 5:30PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:51PHIRadko Gudas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:27NSHPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Schenn – Couturier5:53
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Read – Laughton – Raffl5:04
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds10:57
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- VandeVelde – White – Giroux2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Schultz12:03
xG 0.45–0.42 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 3–1
- Del Zotto – Gostisbehere13:12
xG 0.19–0.50 (27%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Gudas – Medvedev13:32
xG 0.01–0.73 (2%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Smith – Salomaki7:16
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen7:55
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Forsberg – Arvidsson4:53
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Fisher – Neal – Johansen3:12
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm7:47
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bitetto8:57
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi13:14
xG 0.81–0.88 (48%)attempts 16–13goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).