Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 119 | 114 | 11 | 444 |
| COL | 29 | 18 | 07 | 00 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31DALJason SpezzaAssists: Patrick Eaves, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 2:45COLBlake ComeauAssists: Carl Soderberg, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 5:54COLNick HoldenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 15:35DALAles HemskyAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 17:00COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Blake Comeau, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 11:20DALJason DemersPPAssists: Cody Eakin, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 0:35DALJohn KlingbergGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:48DALJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:16COLFrancois Beauchemin: Holding2 min
- P2 9:26DALVernon Fiddler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:00DALPatrick Eaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:00COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:14DALJohn Klingberg: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:38DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:38COLTyson Barrie: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:09DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:57COLBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Janmark5:35
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin9:35
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Nichushkin4:49
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin5:00
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg12:38
xG 0.90–0.03 (97%)attempts 22–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Nemeth5:02
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
- Nemeth – Klingberg4:42
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Duchene – Grigorenko – MacKinnon2:40
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog13:21
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
- Iginla – Duchene – MacKinnon6:27
xG 0.07–0.31 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille7:21
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Redmond – Bigras9:34
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie14:53
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 8–23goals 1–2
- Beauchemin – Johnson16:43
xG 0.20–0.71 (22%)attempts 9–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).