Thu, Feb 4, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Vancouver Canucks 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 07 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 228 |
| VAN | 110 | 07 | 017 | 04 | 0 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05VANLinden VeyPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 9:06CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. VAN Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. VAN Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. CBJ Brandon Dubinsky stopped
- 5. VAN Sven Baertschi stopped
- 6. CBJ Alexander Wennberg scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:42CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:44VANSven Baertschi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:16VANSven Baertschi: Holding2 min
- P3 6:06CBJRene Bourque: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:35VANJared McCann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:26CBJWilliam Karlsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCampbell – Bourque – Foligno2:27
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Karlsson – Rychel2:18
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner13:57
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Rychel5:08
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones18:18
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 24–25goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout13:44
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Goloubef17:13
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDorsett – Sutter – McCann8:41
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat9:59
xG 0.35–0.34 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Burrows – Vey – Etem11:24
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata2:11
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev18:28
xG 0.90–0.45 (66%)attempts 25–16goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Hutton14:14
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski14:40
xG 0.07–1.00 (7%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).