Thu, Feb 4, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 215 | 02 | 424 |
| LAK | 09 | 14 | 112 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:59ANARyan GetzlafAssists: David Perron · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:19ANADavid PerronAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Josh Manson · Deflected, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 2:41ANARyan GarbuttGWGAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 4:15LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 9:57ANAHampus LindholmPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, David Perron · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 19:36LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:12LAKMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:22LAKLuke Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:35ANASimon Despres: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:27LAKMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27LAKMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:06LAKMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:31ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:18LAKTanner Pearson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Stewart – Perron10:51
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:11
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Thompson – Santorelli – Garbutt8:14
xG 0.04–0.15 (23%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Rakell11:27
xG 0.14–0.40 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:06
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler14:54
xG 0.53–0.48 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Despres – Manson2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Shore – Pearson8:10
xG 0.55–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli9:33
xG 0.16–0.10 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Lucic11:04
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gaborik – Lewis10:52
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 2–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb14:13
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- McBain – Muzzin11:30
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Martinez – Schenn14:54
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).